A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
