Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
